Today is Dec 12, 2002. I recently made a bet over dinner that quantum computers would not work. Indeed I gave 10 to 1 odds, but with small stakes. I bet that no 1000 bit integer would have been factored by such a computer by 2013. I might give only slightly lesser odds that such numbers might be factored by 2023. I think that there are principles that preclude this and that we will still not understand those principles in 2023. I am enthusiastic about research into quantum computers for what it will eventually teach us about physics.

I have no unconventional opinions about progress in conventional factoring algorithms.

Kuhn may be right that progress in science sometimes depends on the death of a generation of scientists. I hope that life extension schemes do not somehow impede science.

In 2016 May Umesh Vazirani spoke at the Stanford weekly physic colloquium and suggested that we should be on the lookout for new physics as we explore quantum computing. He mentioned some things to look for. Bravo.