Today is Dec 12, 2002. I recently made a bet over dinner that quantum computers would not work. Indeed I gave 10 to 1 odds, but with small stakes. I bet that no 1000 bit integer would have been factored by such a computer by 2013. I might give only slightly lesser odds that such numbers might be factored by 2023. I think that there are principles that preclude this and that we will still not understand those principles in 2023. I am enthusiastic about research into quantum computers for what it will eventually teach us about physics.
I have no unconventional opinions about progress in conventional factoring algorithms.
Kuhn may be right that progress in science sometimes depends on the death of a generation of scientists. I hope that life extension schemes do not somehow impede science.